April 29, 2011

I am confident in our overconfidence


Number of google hits of the type "I am X% certain".

There are many more people 99% certain of things than 90%, a clear sign of human overconfidence. Not to mention how many are falsely 100% certain of something. Empirical studies on overconfidence bias show that people are wrong about 20% of the time even about things they are 100% confident about.

Here is a logarithmic plot:

Logaritmic overconfidence

Posted by Anders3 at April 29, 2011 04:40 PM