February 29, 2008

Longevity Dividend Transcript Up

Homage to AubreyLast summer I did a talk about scenario planning for the emergence of life extension (based on a mini-workshop with Extrobritannia). Now, courtesy of IEET a transcript (with audio) is online: Future Current Blog Archive Policy Scenarios for the Longevity Dividend

On the Mprize site Reason makes the point that life extension will be unexpected if the advocates have not done their jobs, but that developing it will be such a big project that it will not be a Dolly-surprise. Maybe. But there are many big things that creep up slowly and seem to cause policy surprises despite massive coverage. Just think about the Internet, the Y2K bug or climate change. I think we should be prepared for quick transitions both in technology and opinion: good advocacy uses strategies that work in all four scenarios.

Overall, I think that is the often overlooked lesson of scenario planning ("that horrible thing"): use it to think about what happens in all scenarios, the kind of actions that always make sense. As well as how to make that strategy open to change when we find out that we ended up in scenario X - or outside our chart.

Posted by Anders3 at February 29, 2008 10:42 AM
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