My talk at Humanity+ UK 2011 is now up on YouTube:
My basic point: AI development appears driven more by ideas and insights than incremental improvement. This makes it far more unpredictable than most other research fields - breakthroughs that matter can happen with little warning, but also long stretches where the only progress is on the minor problems.
On the other hand, we can be pretty certain that there is going to be a lot of more AI around in the future, and that some current concerns and trends are going to lead to new ideas and approaches. So the future of AI looks very bright - it is just that we cannot say much about *where* it is going to be bright.
Posted by Anders3 at February 7, 2011 10:19 PM