June 09, 2009

Calibrating my crystal ball

As a futurist, I should make sure to check past predictions to see whether I'm biased (or just bad at predicting). A month ago I wrote Andart: Using Google to predict elections. Now it is time to see how well my guesstimates came out.

PartyPrediction Result Difference
Social Democratic Party 36.3% 24.6%11.7
Moderate Party 14.1%18.8% -6.7
Green Party 9.6%10.9% -1.3
Left Party 9.3%5.6% 3.7
Liberal People's Party 8.4%13.6% -5.2
Sweden Democrats7.7%3.3% 4.4
Christian Democrats 5.0%4.7% 0.3
Pirate Party4.2%7.1%-2.9
Centre Party 3.7%5.5%-1.8
June List 0.9%3.6%-2.7
Feminist Initiativ 0.4%2.2% -1.8

I can't see any bias in any particular direction. I don't think I have any chance of beating the exit polls, but at least the numbers are in the right ballpark.

(On the Aumann agreement board at FHI we had a probability scale on whether the Pirate Party would get a seat; my final position was at 60% probability.)

Posted by Anders3 at June 9, 2009 05:40 PM